YOUR MARKET WORKSPACE
Watch the data in Real-time. Become your #1 broker.
A sharper view of Bitcoin.
YOUR EXPERIMENT$1,000 virtual starting cashNo deposits. No exchange account. No real orders.
A new version is ready. Your paper account is saved on this browser. Refreshing reconnects the feeds.
Connecting to real market data…
₿
Bitcoin BTC / USDCoinbase
—Waiting for a fresh trade
BUYING SHARE · USD VALUE · 60s—Observed trades only
TYPICAL UPDATE DELAY—Includes device clock difference
The tell
—WAITING
Current Kalshi target and expiry
Projected close—
Loading the model projection.
Live buyer / seller pressure · 60s
Buyers —Sellers —
Buy minus sell value—
Model & live data details ▾
Spot after-cost estimate—
Collecting trades.
Each trade has both sides. These figures compare which side initiated it.
UP/DOWN compares the projected exchange closing price with the published Kalshi target at its exact expiry. It is a changing, experimental estimate, not an instruction to buy. Kalshi can settle on a different index or averaging window. The after-cost value is a separate BTC spot forecast estimate using your saved fee, spread and slippage assumptions. It is not a proven trading edge or contract return.
Bitcoin price chart
Waiting for exchange data
Buyer-started value—
Seller-started value—
Buy minus sell—
Bid/ask price gap—
Receiving exchange trades.
No contract selected.
Read the selected candle ▾
Start price—
Highest price—
Lowest price—
Latest price—
Each candle summarizes one minute. Green means the price went up; red means it went down. The thin wick shows the highest and lowest prices.
Dashed purple = experimental future estimate. Shaded area = model range, not a guarantee.
Listening to the marketLoading exchange history and fresh trades.
Price rose Price fell Incomplete candle Exchange history—
USD flow bars match each candle’s time window: green = buyer-started value; red = seller-started value. Faded bars are partial. A grey dash means the buy/sell split was not collected, not zero trading.
The transparent line is the average of five candles, not a price forecast. Your practice entry appears when you hold virtual BTC on this exchange.
Saved history is local to this browser. Live collection runs while this page is open.
What the data says
Waiting for exchange trades
Listening to the market
Live buying and selling pressure, explained using received trades.
——
Buy value minus sell value—Waiting for trades
Price response in this minute—First → latest received trade
Trading activityBuilding 5 minutesNeeds five continuous minutes
PRESSURE OVER FIVE MINUTES
Each bar = 10 seconds. Grey = incomplete collection. Bar height shows the USD difference; the latest bar is forming.
Waiting for both exchanges.How to read this
Every trade has a buyer and a seller. This compares the USD value started by buyers versus sellers on the selected exchange. “More” means at least 55% for that side; 45–55% is called closely balanced. The price response is the change between the first and latest received trades inside the same rolling minute. A pressure mismatch describes these observations; it does not prove hidden orders or predict the next move.
The five-minute pace compares this minute’s USD trading value with the average per minute in the prior four minutes. Missing connections and buffer limits disable a reliable reading. The two exchanges are checked separately, never added together. No collection happens while this page sleeps or closes.
Prices waiting right now
BEST BID / ASKThe highest displayed buyer offer and lowest seller ask. These quotes can change before an order fills.
Sources & meaning
Top price level only, not full order-book depth. Displayed sizes are offers, not completed trades. Coinbase publishes ticker updates on trades; Kraken is subscribed to best-price changes. Quote freshness expires after 10 seconds and is separate from the trade feed. Quotes are context only; paper fills retain your saved cost assumptions.
The big trades stay here
Completed BTC trades from both exchanges, held for 30 minutes.
Waiting for large trades.
Each row is one received trade, not a whole order or an identified whale. Saved locally on this browser; collection stops when this page sleeps or closes. Hold the list, or scroll to hold it automatically. Older saved events expire after 30 minutes.
Detailed trade reader ▾
Buying & selling activity
Completed exchange trades
Live collection continues while the table is paused.
Buyer-initiated value—
Seller-initiated value—
Difference: buys minus sells—
Largest single trade—
Waiting for trades.
| Time window | Buyer value | Seller value | Difference | Trade count | Largest trade |
|---|
Every trade has a buyer and seller. Buy/sell here means the side that started the trade. Highlighted rows contain a single trade worth at least $100,000. Large trades do not identify a whale or a wallet; orders can be split. This is completed trading, not a list of waiting orders. Scroll to pause the table automatically.
Your target. A possible path.
Exchange candles drive this estimate. Prediction-market odds do not drive it.
Type a target from any market, or your own price. This estimates ending above it, not touching it at any time.
Waiting for history and fresh prices.
Middle estimate at the end—
80% model range · not yet verified—
Model estimate: end above your targetEnter a target
Green = past candle closes. Purple dashed = future model median. Shading = a model-based range; actual prices can fall outside it. No real trade or guaranteed entry is implied.
How the estimate updates & learns ▾
Each completed minute updates recent price variation and a damped trend from the last 60 candle-to-candle changes. A simple log-return model extends that trend and widens uncertainty with time. It assumes returns behave more smoothly than real markets sometimes do. Candle shapes are shown for context, not assigned invented success rates.
After 10 earlier, non-overlapping observed outcomes at the same horizon, prior forecast errors can widen the range (up to 3×). This is limited statistical adaptation, not AGI or proof of improving profitability. History & learning records end-price errors and compares them with simply keeping the current price.
Displayed estimates refresh each completed minute. One non-overlapping snapshot per source/horizon is recorded before the outcome. Missed or late observations are excluded. Collection and learning stop while this page sleeps or closes. Fees are not included in target probabilities.
Kalshi base targets & 15-minute contracts ▾
Read-only public data. Your exchange spot price can differ from the contract’s settlement index and averaging window.
No Kalshi request made yet.
Optional. After you request it, this section refreshes every 30 seconds while open. A service interruption is shown clearly.
Kalshi public API source ↗Learn the candle shape
FORMINGReal shapes from your selected chart.
Waiting for candles.
Explore the pattern library
Waiting for two fresh feeds
Asynchronous last trades, not an executable spread.
Feed details & saved candles ＋
Freshness expires after 10 seconds without a fresh trade. Heartbeats alone cannot make prices live. Delay includes device clock differences. Missing intervals remain empty.
| Start | Start price | Highest | Lowest | Latest / end | Data coverage |
|---|
Practice the decision.
Use live prices and virtual dollars. Every trade includes your estimated costs.
Place a paper trade
VIRTUAL ONLYWaiting for a fresh quote.
A simulated fill uses the latest fresh trade plus modeled spread and slippage. Actual fills may differ. No exchange orders are sent.
Your open position
NO POSITIONYour next idea starts here. Buy virtual BTC to watch its value change.
Automatic paper experiment
Rule entries up to $100; observed 1% stop, 2% target, or 5-minute exit. Long only.
Runs only while this page is open and quotes are fresh. Stops use the first observed price, not guaranteed stop fills. Sleep can cause larger losses. Manual positions are also managed when this switch is on.
Model your costs
ASSUMPTIONSIllustrative estimates, not your exchange fee schedule. Half the spread applies on each side. Costs are locked while a position is open.
Your virtual value over time
OBSERVED MARKS · NET EXIT VALUEUp to 500 recent observed marks, spaced in observation order. No values or fills are invented while the page is closed. Clearing this experiment resets the curve.
The honest scorecard
No closed trades yet. No measured advantage.
Export first to keep your results. Resetting starts a new $1,000 virtual account and clears this browser’s paper journal.
| Exit time | Source | Entry → Exit | Net P/L | Costs | Reason |
|---|
Account/history are saved on this device and site address, not synced to friends or other devices. Clearing site data deletes them. Export regularly. Maximum 1,000 closed trades per experiment.
Evidence before conviction.
Signals are timestamped before outcomes. Missed observation windows are excluded.
One paper prediction per market
Waiting for live market data.
Waiting for a published target and fresh inputs.No official outcomes yet.
| Recorded | Contract closes | Paper call | Spot estimate | Official index value | Official outcome |
|---|
The price estimate uses exchange candles. The contract may settle on a different index and average. Official YES/NO outcomes come from Kalshi, including after you reopen the page. Calls are recorded once before expiry; missed markets are not invented. More calls alone do not prove better accuracy or profit.
Spot-price forecast checks & countdowns ▾
Does the ghost match what happens?
FORWARD OBSERVATIONSThe selected exchange and forecast horizon are used for these averages. Lower error is better; compare with the unchanged-price baseline. No improvement is claimed until the evidence supports it.
| Issued | Ends | Source | Horizon | Middle estimate | Status | Actual price | Price error |
|---|
Entry-rule history ▾
STRATEGYWicks breakout v1
Completed 1m candles · trend + pattern/breakout + volume. No trained probability model.
FORWARD DIRECTION CHECKNo settled signals yet
Three-minute BTC direction, separate from paper P/L.
| Recorded | Source | Rule output | Reference price | 3m outcome | Explanation |
|---|
Direction checks exclude fees; paper P/L includes costs. WAIT has no scored direction. Interrupted or late outcomes are unobserved. No historical signals are retrospectively invented. Up to 2,000 recent signal records retained; export for long-term research.
What is the market pricing?
Prices people are paying for an outcome. These are separate from your Bitcoin chart.
Indicative prices, refreshed every 30 seconds while this tab is visible. Markets can use different horizons and resolution sources from BTC exchange candles. No model odds or profit edge is claimed.
Source: Polymarket public markets ↗ · Order-book quotes ↗
15-minute candles summarize price over 15 minutes. A 15-minute market is a separate contract with its own 15-minute outcome window and resolution rules. The practice signal still uses 1-minute candles.
Open this tab to request public Bitcoin markets from Polymarket.
Read-only public data. No wallet or betting account connection. Regional/network restrictions may block access. Retrieval age and provider timestamps are distinct. Book quotes are not guaranteed executable and omit provider fees.
Workspace preferences & limits ＋
Alerts appear inside this open page with a 60-second cooldown. No notification permissions are requested.
What this version does
12 pattern heuristics, forward signal logs, local saved candles, and virtual BTC spot trading. Collection and automatic paper actions stop when this page sleeps or closes. Backfilled candles cannot recreate missed paper fills.
Patterns are experimental definitions, not a complete taxonomy or a proven advantage. No blockchain whale monitor or multi-asset trading is connected.
Trading words, in plain English
- Candle
- One block of time showing where price started, the highest and lowest it reached, and where it ended or is now.
- Wick and body
- The thin wick marks the high and low. The thick body connects the start and end prices.
- Trade vs waiting order
- A trade already happened. An order is an offer to buy or sell that may still be waiting. This activity table shows completed trades.
- Spread and slippage
- Spread is the gap between buying and selling prices. Slippage means the fill price differs from the price you expected.
- Buying share
- The share of received trade value or BTC amount started by buyers. Every completed trade also has a seller.
- Liquidity and market odds
- Liquidity describes available trading interest. Prediction-market prices reflect what people pay for an outcome, not a guaranteed chance of winning.